Everything about The Valence Effect totally explained
The
Valence effect of
prediction is the tendency for people to simply overestimate the likelihood of good things happening rather than bad things.
Valence refers to the
positive or
negative emotional charge something has.
This finding has been corroborated by dozens of studies. In one straightforward experiment, all other things being equal, participants assigned a higher probability to picking a card that had a smiling face on its reverse side than one which had a frowning face.
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In addition, some have reported a valence effect in
attribution when we overpredict the likelihood of positive events happening to
ourselves relative to others.
See self-serving bias.
The outcome of valence effects may be called
wishful thinking. However, in certain situations, the positive outcome bias may actually alter the event in some way so that it indeed results in a positive outcome. Examples of this have been seen to occur in war battles, when generals have often roused up their soldiers to a point where they're able to emerge victorious in the fought battle.
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